A rather ambiguous article in the New York Times this morning (8/26/13), not sure what the point is. But I'll paste my comment in here to preserve it in case I ever develop a fan base.
With emendations, I owe my comment about the unlimited supply of "unskilled" labor to General Odom, but I may have invented a new concept. It refer to the reference to an "Atlantic" culture, shorthand for a "Mid-Atlantic" Anglo-Saxon culture, thus taking some of the loaded terms off the table. Less cumbersome than Jared Diamond's WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed).
Afro-Americans are DEEPLY Anglo Saxon culturally, President Obama and Colin Powell are "More Anglo-Saxon" than my inbred rural third cousins here in Arkansas as far as I am concerned.
I am not sure what the point of the article was. Personally, I have no problem with the ambiguous status of Mr. Wajskol, obviously he is a useful and productive resident whose children will probably grow up to be useful and productive citizens.
The larger problem with our immigration system is as the article notes in passing, ""Legions Dream of an American Passport." Is Mr Wajskol somehow depriving them of this opportunity? I don't think so, and I would welcome any literate, English speaking member of the larger "Atlantic" culture who wants to move and work here.
BUT, the rest of the world has an essentially unlimited supply of low skill workers for whom this country is still the last best hope. Too bad, so sad, the lifeboat is pretty full, we are not creating enough jobs for our own low-skill workers.
Low skill immigrants (however you describe that category) are simply used to depress the wages of the American Working class. I'm sure given the opportunity half the population of Haiti would be on a plane tomorrow, and that is a country with a population of what, nine million?
Yes, a little diversity is good, but we can not assimilate all the potential refugees and immigrants from non-Atlantic cultures that would like to move here. And some of them, once granted Green cards, singularly fail to assimilate, most spectacularly recently the Fort Hood Shooter.
Further Points:
1. I got the population of Haiti correct off the top of my Head!!!
(My netbook insists on closing the window before opening a new one).
2. Unassimilateable Immigrants. OK, I am specifically concerned about people with a Grandfather Named Mohamed. Yes, there are MANY of them who become fully assimilated. But a significant portion who don't, if only the media would cover these stories as assiduously as they do every School and Workplace Shooting. You pick up the odd story about alleged "Honor Killings" by chance. What concerns me is how many "go along to get along," travel back to the home village and marry their 1st Cousins, making them (the 1st Cousin) instantly eligible for a US visa and Green card, and shifting the problem to the next generation. It's a classic case of Chain Migration (look it up) to bring in more of the same, who sustain and grow these self contained and self referencing communities. We have enough home grown communities of that sort already.
Monday, August 26, 2013
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Soviet War Plans, 1979-1989
Russian (Soviet) Cold War plans and Sir John Hackett
I wrote this as a post on another Blog, because this is a recurring theme, it is worthwhile to post here as a semi-permanent record of my knowledge of the subject.
One of the more interesting aspects of the debate is the way people with little real knowledge of the facts seem to believe they "know" the truth.
It happens that I DO know a lot more about these issues than most people, the first is the refusal of otherwise rational and intelligent people to understand that there was a whole society controlled by a group who believed in a Malevolent Ideology (Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist thought, pick your label, usually refereed to as Communism or the Eastern Bloc for convenience) which was a threat to the entire "Western Way of Life" (Democracy and all that).
Having worked in the (US) V Corps HQ (Frankfurt) in 1978-89 and various other exercise and training environments through the 1980's.....
Among other things, every major exercise (V Corps) we had "Representatives of an (unidentified) Friendly Foreign Power" present as "observers." Or something. Funny enough, they all spoke French and wore strange (to me) uniforms (Kepis Featured, with plenty of Gold Braid) that I have always assumed were French. But I suppose it made their Government happy to pretend they were outside the NATO command structure.
And by "Exercise" I include the "Command Post Exercise" (CPX) cycle, ten (?) or so (Total) a year, much cheaper to deploy the Staff, etc (300-400 personnel?) somewhere for a week than the "Field" exercises when you have all those Tanks etc rolling around the countryside.
At some point in the 1980's, in addition to doing a significant number of (Official) war games/exercises, I matured into a good enough Soviet Specialist to be aware that they had a parallel and much deeper (intellectual) level of "Operations Research" (OR) than we did, or at least a broader distribution of this specialized knowledge. Really, I met at least one US OR specialist who studied the Soviet (Open Source) literature.
To skip a couple of steps, with the end of the Cold War, they (accidently?) left a copy of their basic War Plan (Schliefen plan for the 80's?) in a Polish Barracks, which was subsequently published in the Journal of Soviet Military Studies.
Nuke Everything in sight, (US/NATO Barracks and Installations) then get (the Warsaw Pact) Troops moving out of the Kasernes.
(Straight across the North German Plain, there is a variety of supporting evidence in their Force Structure and Training that this really was "The Plan")
OK, what I thought was important was:
1. I knew from (US) Games and Exercises, that a Soviet conventional Offensive was a Dubious Proposition;
2. Presumably their exercises showed the same thing.
3. In Soviet Experience/Political/Military Theory, there is no substitute for Victory.
(Example, Sidorenko, The Offensive, USAF Translation. Too turgid for me to actually read, but at least I am "familiar" with the work)
4. It's Not Much of a Plan, But.....
My question was, why did no one ever suggest I connect the dots? Did anyone ever?
(Which should come our from behind the Green Door in another twenty or thirty years).
I wrote this as a post on another Blog, because this is a recurring theme, it is worthwhile to post here as a semi-permanent record of my knowledge of the subject.
One of the more interesting aspects of the debate is the way people with little real knowledge of the facts seem to believe they "know" the truth.
It happens that I DO know a lot more about these issues than most people, the first is the refusal of otherwise rational and intelligent people to understand that there was a whole society controlled by a group who believed in a Malevolent Ideology (Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist thought, pick your label, usually refereed to as Communism or the Eastern Bloc for convenience) which was a threat to the entire "Western Way of Life" (Democracy and all that).
Having worked in the (US) V Corps HQ (Frankfurt) in 1978-89 and various other exercise and training environments through the 1980's.....
Among other things, every major exercise (V Corps) we had "Representatives of an (unidentified) Friendly Foreign Power" present as "observers." Or something. Funny enough, they all spoke French and wore strange (to me) uniforms (Kepis Featured, with plenty of Gold Braid) that I have always assumed were French. But I suppose it made their Government happy to pretend they were outside the NATO command structure.
And by "Exercise" I include the "Command Post Exercise" (CPX) cycle, ten (?) or so (Total) a year, much cheaper to deploy the Staff, etc (300-400 personnel?) somewhere for a week than the "Field" exercises when you have all those Tanks etc rolling around the countryside.
At some point in the 1980's, in addition to doing a significant number of (Official) war games/exercises, I matured into a good enough Soviet Specialist to be aware that they had a parallel and much deeper (intellectual) level of "Operations Research" (OR) than we did, or at least a broader distribution of this specialized knowledge. Really, I met at least one US OR specialist who studied the Soviet (Open Source) literature.
To skip a couple of steps, with the end of the Cold War, they (accidently?) left a copy of their basic War Plan (Schliefen plan for the 80's?) in a Polish Barracks, which was subsequently published in the Journal of Soviet Military Studies.
Nuke Everything in sight, (US/NATO Barracks and Installations) then get (the Warsaw Pact) Troops moving out of the Kasernes.
(Straight across the North German Plain, there is a variety of supporting evidence in their Force Structure and Training that this really was "The Plan")
OK, what I thought was important was:
1. I knew from (US) Games and Exercises, that a Soviet conventional Offensive was a Dubious Proposition;
2. Presumably their exercises showed the same thing.
3. In Soviet Experience/Political/Military Theory, there is no substitute for Victory.
(Example, Sidorenko, The Offensive, USAF Translation. Too turgid for me to actually read, but at least I am "familiar" with the work)
4. It's Not Much of a Plan, But.....
My question was, why did no one ever suggest I connect the dots? Did anyone ever?
(Which should come our from behind the Green Door in another twenty or thirty years).
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Africa Corps Order of Battle (DAK)
You know, Field Marshall Rommel's guys. Just another example of the triumph of German Historiography, I recently had an opportunity to play the old SPI Boardgame on Operation Crusader. Interesting little game, seemed to have a slight pro-Axis Bias in various ways, but no real commentary on Board Game Geek to sort it out.
BUT, while examining the counter mix, I realized that both myself and my opponent probably knew more about the Axis Forces than we did about the British/Commonwealth. Oh sure, we "know" there was 7th Armored Division (UK) and the NZ Division, but after that it was a bit fuzzy. Now the Germans, well, you have 15th and 21st Panzer, 90th Light (Technically still Division Africa zBv at the start of the campaign?), Ariete (The Italian Armored Division), plus an assortment of other Italians. We got bogged down on which (German) Panzer (5th or 8th) Regiment belonged to Which Panzer Division?
The Answer is, 8th Panzer Regiment belongs to 15th Panzer Division, and 5th is (nominally) subordinate to 21st. The Four Panzer Battalions (Two per regiment) are the Major source of combat power for the Axis. Against Ten (Much Weaker) British Tank Regiments (Battalion size units).
Short version (More on the game later, plans to play again). I went home and pulled a book off the top of one of my piles with the answer (above), and realize once again I have three (separate) published sets of German Order of Battle Documentation, plus at least two specialized works on the Africa Corps. But I own NO comparable work on the British. I tried to buy one ten years ago, what was billed as an "Order of Battle" was really a "Bathtub" game guide. Forget the various Osprey "OB Guides", which seem to be more "Handbooks" than OB reference works.
BUT, while examining the counter mix, I realized that both myself and my opponent probably knew more about the Axis Forces than we did about the British/Commonwealth. Oh sure, we "know" there was 7th Armored Division (UK) and the NZ Division, but after that it was a bit fuzzy. Now the Germans, well, you have 15th and 21st Panzer, 90th Light (Technically still Division Africa zBv at the start of the campaign?), Ariete (The Italian Armored Division), plus an assortment of other Italians. We got bogged down on which (German) Panzer (5th or 8th) Regiment belonged to Which Panzer Division?
The Answer is, 8th Panzer Regiment belongs to 15th Panzer Division, and 5th is (nominally) subordinate to 21st. The Four Panzer Battalions (Two per regiment) are the Major source of combat power for the Axis. Against Ten (Much Weaker) British Tank Regiments (Battalion size units).
Short version (More on the game later, plans to play again). I went home and pulled a book off the top of one of my piles with the answer (above), and realize once again I have three (separate) published sets of German Order of Battle Documentation, plus at least two specialized works on the Africa Corps. But I own NO comparable work on the British. I tried to buy one ten years ago, what was billed as an "Order of Battle" was really a "Bathtub" game guide. Forget the various Osprey "OB Guides", which seem to be more "Handbooks" than OB reference works.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
The Military Industrial Complex
Sources:
Why We Fight (Documentary Film, 2005)
Drift, Rachel Maddow (2012)
Little America, Rajiv Chandrasekaran (2012)
What a mess. I understand this years election is going to be settled based on domestic issues, but both Maddow and the film call for rational discourse on the subject. Which I am not hearing.
While Little America is more about operational matters, what is striking is how we repeated the Vietnam experience ("We fought the war for one year, seven times"); We forgot and had to relearn "Counterinsurgency", and however adaptable our forces are, they are still limited crippled by inter service particularism and even less supported by the USAID and State Department than they were in Vietnam.
Following up on the arguments made by Baskevich, yes, there is some bipartisan blame, but it was the (Republican) "neo-cons" who lead us over the Rubicon into Iraq under false pretenses, with no rational follow up plan. I wouldn't trust those guys (or their contractors) to run the county animal shelter.
Why We Fight (Documentary Film, 2005)
Drift, Rachel Maddow (2012)
Little America, Rajiv Chandrasekaran (2012)
What a mess. I understand this years election is going to be settled based on domestic issues, but both Maddow and the film call for rational discourse on the subject. Which I am not hearing.
While Little America is more about operational matters, what is striking is how we repeated the Vietnam experience ("We fought the war for one year, seven times"); We forgot and had to relearn "Counterinsurgency", and however adaptable our forces are, they are still limited crippled by inter service particularism and even less supported by the USAID and State Department than they were in Vietnam.
Following up on the arguments made by Baskevich, yes, there is some bipartisan blame, but it was the (Republican) "neo-cons" who lead us over the Rubicon into Iraq under false pretenses, with no rational follow up plan. I wouldn't trust those guys (or their contractors) to run the county animal shelter.
Friday, August 24, 2012
Human Intelligence (HUMINT)
You know, Spies and other good stuff.
Actually, this is provoked by a post on Charles Stross's blog
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/08/spies-1.html
Nothing special. a short meditation on what the potential for HUMINT is in the 21st Century.
BUT, with over 400 comments form a well informed and interested population, well, most of them don't have a clue. They confuse Hollywood and James Bond with the well documented (Memoirs, etc) process of recruiting "agents" and the difference between that and limitations of "Direct Action".
Direct Actions is things like sending Seal Team 6 after Osama; Drones and Black Helicopter stuff.
HUMINT is one of the tools to develop targeting information.
OK, I'm weird I actually READ the court filings about the recent case of the (Russian) SVR Illegals in New York/New Jersey.
Yes, it is a complex process often spoken of in hushed tones. But it's not a deep dark secret. Actual knowledge of the identities of our "Case Officers" (See Valerie Plame) is secret, and should be protected.
The "SECRETS" that must be protected are the identity of any agents they (The Case Officers) have recruited. Techniques are pretty straightforward and widely reported; one of my favorites was the MICE acronym (Money, Ideology, Compromise, Excitement).
I recall a throway in a memoir about the KGB establishing twenty "rings" of Illegals in the US in the 1950's. The accidental compromise of Colonel Abel (The guy we traded for Francis Gary Powers) closed down ONE of them. What ever happened to the other nineteen? And was the recent New York operation a sample of a similar scale of effort?
And if people are that (generally) clueless, how do I get a job with (as?) the Wake Up Walmart Rezident?
Actually, this is provoked by a post on Charles Stross's blog
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/08/spies-1.html
Nothing special. a short meditation on what the potential for HUMINT is in the 21st Century.
BUT, with over 400 comments form a well informed and interested population, well, most of them don't have a clue. They confuse Hollywood and James Bond with the well documented (Memoirs, etc) process of recruiting "agents" and the difference between that and limitations of "Direct Action".
Direct Actions is things like sending Seal Team 6 after Osama; Drones and Black Helicopter stuff.
HUMINT is one of the tools to develop targeting information.
OK, I'm weird I actually READ the court filings about the recent case of the (Russian) SVR Illegals in New York/New Jersey.
Yes, it is a complex process often spoken of in hushed tones. But it's not a deep dark secret. Actual knowledge of the identities of our "Case Officers" (See Valerie Plame) is secret, and should be protected.
The "SECRETS" that must be protected are the identity of any agents they (The Case Officers) have recruited. Techniques are pretty straightforward and widely reported; one of my favorites was the MICE acronym (Money, Ideology, Compromise, Excitement).
I recall a throway in a memoir about the KGB establishing twenty "rings" of Illegals in the US in the 1950's. The accidental compromise of Colonel Abel (The guy we traded for Francis Gary Powers) closed down ONE of them. What ever happened to the other nineteen? And was the recent New York operation a sample of a similar scale of effort?
And if people are that (generally) clueless, how do I get a job with (as?) the Wake Up Walmart Rezident?
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Dissing the Tsar
OK, I need followers, but....
I just couldn't put "Pussy Riot" in the title.
Not nice to dis the Tsar. There was a throwaway reference to Tsar Putin the V in a really BAD science fiction novel I read a couple of years ago.
Like anyone needed any more proof they (he?) really isn't ready to be considered a responsible member of the international community.
I just couldn't put "Pussy Riot" in the title.
Not nice to dis the Tsar. There was a throwaway reference to Tsar Putin the V in a really BAD science fiction novel I read a couple of years ago.
Like anyone needed any more proof they (he?) really isn't ready to be considered a responsible member of the international community.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Stalin's General: The Life of Georgy Zhukov by Geoffrey Roberts
This looks like it will be the only "Mass Market" Soviet military history title this year.
There was a Wall Street Journal book review, and I have seen it in the local Barnes & Noble.
More information if I actually get to read it.
There was a Wall Street Journal book review, and I have seen it in the local Barnes & Noble.
More information if I actually get to read it.
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